Challenges in Specifying and Predicting Space Weather

Physics-based Data Assimilation (DA) has been shown to be a powerful technique for specifying and predicting space weather. However, it is also known that different data assimilation models simulating the same geophysical event can display weather features even if are assimilated. In this study, we used our Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) of DA elucidate similarities differences in individual model reconstructions mid-low latitude ionosphere when averages were obtained. For ensemble modeling selected quiet/storm period 16 17 March 2013 (equinox, solar medium). Five one physics-based produce an mean output Total Electron Content (TEC), ionospheric peak density (NmF2), height (hmF2) latitudes less than 60° all longitudes. The assimilated included ground-based Global Positioning Satellite TEC topside plasma densities near 800 km altitude derived from COSMIC (Constellation Observing Meteorology, Ionosphere, Climate) satellites. Both simple average weighted averaging order determine there was improvement over models.